Glacial Lake Outbreak Threat and Another Water-Related Myth

Bhubaneswor Dhakal

In this e-conference I would like to raise two issues. Firstly I like to comment about outbreak threat of glacial lakes and suggest problem to prepare against the hazard. Secondly I suggest that Mountain Legacy run similar e-conference on water related another myth.

Glacial Lakes Threat: Real or Myth?

With my limited knowledge I find difficult to believe that the glacier hazard is a myth. We know that earthquakes events in the Himalayan region are common. If the epicenter of a large earthquake occurs near glacier lakes areas during rainy season, it may break glacier lakes and contribute to raising river level significantly. If this event occurs simultaneously with intense/heavy rainfall the effect can be catastrophic for the downstream dwellers. However degree of impact depends on the amount of water discharge in that event from the lakes and the stream flow regulated by other natural barriers.

I see some problems for preparing people to be safe against the glacial hazard. Glacier tourism is an adventure tourism where the tourists are trained on how to survive if they encounter unexpected hazards. Therefore the hazard affects little on tourism industry. The hazard is more important for downstream dwellers. The people are not well prepared to be safe against the hazard of intense rainfall (the commonly occurring hazard) how they prepare against the glacial lakes hazard. In my opinion if communication networks are developed in safe sites and provided its services in hazard potential localities it would be great help to minimize potential human casualties.

Increase forest cover increases water yield: myth or reality?

In my knowledge mountain people have been suffering from the myth that "forest cover increases water yield". Many experiment-based researches contradicted the sponge theory of forest hydrology and show that dry season water stream flows decrease with increase in forest covers. It is a global theory. These articles are well compiled in Forest Science Encyclopedia 2004 Volume 1. The local governments and hydropower companies of developed countries aware of the knowledge are discouraging landholders of water catchments areas for increasing forest areas. But in the Himalayan region forest covers are increasing for increasing water yield. International agencies (expert knowledge) have also given similar advices. For example, you may access an article titled "Investigating the Delivery of Ecosystem Economic Benefits for Upland Livelihoods and Downstream Water Users in Nepal. Policy Brief 3: The Costs and Benefits of Conserving Shivapuri National Park Catchments, Nepal" in the webpage named http://www.frp.uk.com/dissemination_documents/R8512_-_policy_brief_3_.... *The article is prepared by IUCN (2006) in the involvement of many organizations. The experts' advices are contradictory with experiment based knowledge. If you look at situation of the Himalayan mountain region, the forest cover and land abandonment are increasing. Based on experiment based research theory the dry season stream flows should be decreasing and affecting water supplies. Certainly natural phenomena do not differ between developed and developing countries. The expert advice seems wrong. In my assessment the land of the Himalayan region are over uses in environment conservation (soil, biodiversity, and water conservation and pollution mitigation) which has very serious consequences in the lives of poor people and economy of the poor countries. Most of land misuses are based on myth. Being honest ICIMOD is appropriate organization to run such e-conference. However, I see problems in the organization to explore such emerging problems and do policy and intellectual discussions on the issue. Therefore I suggest the Mountain Legacy for running similar discussion about "relationship between forest cover and water yield" that could benefit many poor people of the Himalayan region.

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